Naturalistic Decision-Making: Can It Work For You?

How humans actually make decisions in complex, real-world settings is the study of naturalistic decision-making (NDM). Over the last several decades, NDM research has focused on answering questions regarding how we develop expertise and how we apply that expertise in order to make successful decisions in the real world. Application of NDM findings has met with positive results in a variety of fields including, but not limited to, fireground command, battle planning, critical-care nursing and event management. 

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What can NDM do for you? 
The answer is simple. By understanding the factors that influence how you make decisions in real-world settings, instead of focusing on theoretically how you are suppose to make decisions in a sterile environment, you can gain a significant edge when dealing with real-world problems (see implications below). Whether making decisions that are personal or professional, NDM provides insights into a number of key factors impacting how you make decisions. These factors include;

1. Time stress
2. Ill-defined goals and/or ill-structured tasks
3. Uncertainty, ambiguity, and missing data 
   
4. Action-feedback loops (real-time reactions to changed conditions)
   
5. Dynamic and continually changing conditions
   
6. Shifting and competing goals
   
7. High stakes
   
8. Multiple players
   
9. Organizational goals and norms

If you can personally identify with working in an environment or making decisions under any of the above conditions on a regular basis, then most likely you will find the concepts behind NDM very useful and rewarding.

Rational Decision-Making
This is not to say that theoretical models that focus on optimizing the decision process do not have their place. Utilitarian or rational decision-making (RDM) models, whereby the optimal decision is determined through the use of a rational process of gathering information, forming multiple solutions, comparing options, implementing the option that will provide optimal results and formally evaluating those results does have value. Many useful training programs, decision support systems and self-help literature has been created using theoretical models of optimal decision-making. But, RDM does have certain limitations.

For example, a practice in the military developed around RDM principles was to train officers that when preparing a battle plan they should develop and compare three options and then implement the option they deemed superior. While this practice based on RDM models was well intentioned, NDM research has demonstrated that real-world factors such as time stress, missing data and continually changing conditions inherent in a combat environment make developing three options impractical and it was not how officers were actually deciding what actions to take in the field. And while most of us are not military officers operating on a battlefield, many of us still operate in dynamic, real environments that share similar features, most notably time stress.

Successful Decision Makers
How then are decision makers successful if they are not using the methods developed using RDM models? Based on the findings of NDM researchers across multiple studies, there does seem to be a natural process used by successful decision makers. What researchers found is that successful decision makers; 

1. Develop a first option based on recognition of key situational cues. Random generation or         “brainstorming” of multiple options is not taking place. Experience of the decision maker plays a vital role. 
   
2. Evaluate the option using pragmatic mental simulation as opposed to formal RDM analysis. Successful decision makers envision how the option will play out in resolving the problem. 
   
3. Implement the option if the simulation is “workable” or satisficing. The successful decision maker is not attempting to optimize. 
   
4. Generate a second option if the mental simulation fails to result in a workable solution. Successful decision makers generate options sequentially and are not using concurrent evaluation or comparison.  
   
5. Are more focused on situation assessment than decision points. Successful decision makers are constantly seeking to elaborate and improve options, not choose between options.
   
6. Implement options prior to complete analysis. Given the dynamic and imperfect nature of real-world settings, successful decision makers act on partial information. 

Implications
For organizations and group dynamics, NDM has a number of important implications, but it also has implications for you, the individual. To help use findings of NDM to better understand and improve decision making, consider;

1. Improving your access to reliable, timely, accurate information. Since success will depend more on your ability to correctly interpret a problem than on your ability to come up with multiple solutions, make sure to select the right tools for your particular field and develop your ability to find, interpret and update information.
2. Recognize quickly when you should outsource the decision. In many cases the best decision should be that you are not the right person to make the decision. Outsource or delegate decisions to those in a better position, those with experience and access to the right information. If you do not have access to the right information or tools, who does?        
   
3. Gain breadth instead of depth of experience. While depth can be important as well, having the best chance of making a successful decision in real-world settings means getting out of your routine and getting involved trying new things, learning from others as well as using case studies and “what if” scenarios to enhance your knowledge base. One NDM study demonstrated that firefighters working in an urban area were exposed to a much wider range of events than those working in rural areas, resulting in the urban firefighters having access to a broader range of experiences, which they could draw upon when recognizing appropriate courses of action.
   
4. Learn to act sooner rather than later. Instead of delaying action in an effort to gather more information and compare multiple options, learn to act and adjust as new information becomes available. Unlike RDM where evaluation takes place after implementation of the optimal solution, successful decision makers implement workable solutions as they continuously evaluate and update their understanding of the situation in an ongoing process of action-feedback loops.
   
5. Know when RDM is the right choice. Keep in mind key factors related to making successful decisions in NDM environments. If a problem lacks time stress, is structured, not dynamic, etc. then consider using RDM models to develop and compare options. NDM is not a replacement for RDM, it is simply an additional field of research on decision making that can help improve your ability to make successful decisions under real-world conditions.    

Sources
Klein, G. (2008). Naturalistic decision making. Human Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, 50(3), 456-460.

Lipshitz, R., Klein, G., Orasanu, J., & Salas, E. (2001). Taking stock of naturalistic decision making. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 14(5), 331-352.

Montgomery, H., Lipshitz, R., & Brehmer, B. (2004). How Professionals Make Decisions (Expertise: Research and Applications Series) (0 ed.). CRC Press.

Zsambok, C. E., & Klein, G. (2014). Naturalistic Decision Making (Expertise: Research and Applications Series).